Welcome to Nightpixels, a data-driven visual blog about investing, business, and technology.
Nightpixels is published each week by Nightview Capital Research Analyst Cameron Tierney. Follow him here on X.
Home buyers have no idea how much their agents are paid
According to a recent Redfin survey, as many as 28% of home buyers have no idea how much their agents were paid. This data, in our view, is illustrative of the opaqueness in realtor fees present in today’s market. Once the NAR settlement is enacted in June, the status quo stands to change dramatically.
Cloudflare says DDoS attacks surged 50% in Q1
Cloudflare (NET) published its Q1 DDoS threat report recently. The company shared a slew of metrics from across its global network. At a high level, there was a 50% YoY increase in number of DDoS attacks in Q1, depicted above. One other interesting stat from the report is that Sweden experienced a 466% increase in DDoS attacks after its acceptance into NATO.
A look at Alibaba business units
Jack Ma, Alibaba’s co-founder, recently shared an internal memo with employees. According to the note, Ma believes Alibaba’s future is looking brighter than ever and pushed employees to evade a the “big company trap.” He wrote: “We are starting to operate on the diseases of a big company, returning again from an organization that makes decisions slowly back to the highest levels of efficiency and a market-first approach, to once again allow the company to be simple and agile.”
Odds of S&P 500 12-month outperformance
Although this chart is a month old, it feels even more relevant today with the recent selloff in the S&P. When the S&P 500 rallies 20% over a 15 week period, the odds of the next twelve months realizing a positive return are 98% — but that doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility in between.
All-cash home buys are at a decade high
As mortgage rates have shot up, cash buyers have come into the real estate market at decade-high levels. Meanwhile, first-time home buyers are struggling to get their feet in the door, with purchases at a decade low.
Corporate earnings estimates are rising, not falling
Earnings estimates upgrades have outpaced downgrades in the first quarter of 2024, according to a Citigroup index. Despite expectations for rate cuts reducing this year, corporate earnings may still post solid growth.
The 20-year returns of dot-com darlings
This chart shows how overpaying for businesses can really crimp returns even if the underlying business performs extremely well. Dot-com era darlings were trading at astronomic 25x P/S multiples during the bubble over two decades ago. An index of these companies, as depicted above, only returned 16% over the proceeding two decades despite a 10x in revenue. Once multiples came down to earth, it takes blitzing growth to realize outsize returns on overpriced businesses.
