By: Arne Alsin | CIO, Nightview Capital

Imagine a baseball game. The stands are buzzing, and the crowd is arguing about the winner. But here’s the thing: the players haven’t even taken the field.

In my view: that’s Tesla today.

Some investors, I’ve seen, are already treating it like the ninth inning. They’re debating whether the company is overvalued—or out of gas. But, in my opinion, we’re barely out of batting practice.

This isn’t the first time I’ve found myself defending a bold call. A decade ago, I wrote Confessions of a Crazy Stock Picker, a piece about leaning into ideas others dismissed as absurd. It was about spotting opportunities others couldn’t—or wouldn’t—see, and being willing to act while the consensus balked. That piece gave me a reputation I’ve carried ever since.

I’ve been called crazy plenty of times, but nothing has tested—and reinforced—that reputation more than my conviction in Tesla. For the past eight years, I’ve listened to the skeptics. Tesla was too risky, too expensive, too speculative. Friends and strangers alike would raise their eyebrows, muttering, “There he goes again…”

But here’s the thing: being called crazy can create opportunity. Markets thrive on consensus, but consensus doesn’t make you money.

Conviction does.

Tesla has been my strongest conviction for years, and it still is today. In fact, despite its rapid recent rise, I believe it’s the stock of the decade. This is just my opinion, but I believe we’re only just getting started.

In my experience, most people seem to view Tesla as a car company. That is, I believe, their first mistake. Tesla isn’t just building electric vehicles; I believe it’s creating an ecosystem. It’s laying the infrastructure for the 21st century. Every few years, the company leaps to a new S-curve of innovation. EVs were act one. Full Self-Driving (FSD) is act two. Robotics and AI could be act three. And beyond that, I believe the roadmap will stretch into possibilities we can barely imagine.

What excites me most about Tesla isn’t just the potential for growth; it’s the sheer scope of that growth. Right now, the spotlight is on FSD, and for good reason. I believe Tesla’s lead in autonomous driving is staggering. Every mile driven by a Tesla feeds into its data moat, making the system smarter, safer, and better. No competitor, in my opinion, comes close to matching this scale, and the advantage compounds daily. Read more in our Q3 Letter on that front.

This isn’t just a marginal opportunity—it’s transformative. The transition to autonomous transportation is, in my view, a multi-trillion-dollar shift, and Tesla is positioned to lead it. But FSD is only one chapter of the story.

Tesla’s ability to reinvent itself is what makes it truly special, in my view. While others are focused on selling EVs today, I believe Tesla is already looking ahead to robotics, AI, and energy solutions. It doesn’t just compete—it changes the game entirely.

Critics love to focus on Tesla’s volatility, treating every price swing as a sign of doom or euphoria. But stock prices and value aren’t the same thing. For over a decade, in my view, Tesla has been steadily building value beneath the surface, and I believe that value is on the cusp of expressing itself in ways most investors fail to grasp.

This brings us back to the baseball game. Investors are so caught up in the noise of today’s market that they’re missing the bigger picture. Tesla isn’t in the ninth inning. It’s in warm-ups.

The innings ahead, in my opinion, promise to be remarkable.

When I wrote Confessions of a Crazy Stock Picker ten years ago, I argued that the best opportunities come when others can’t—or won’t—see them. Tesla is the perfect example of this, in my view. The skeptics are loud, but I believe they’re missing the forest for the trees.

I’ve studied the company for close to a decade. And I believe Tesla’s roadmap is packed with exponential opportunities. Each step forward—whether it’s EVs, FSD, robotics, or AI—makes Tesla, in my opinion, more indispensable. Each step could strengthes its position as a leader in the industries of the future.

This is why I remain as bullish on Tesla today as I was eight years ago—if not more so. In my view, the game hasn’t started, and the players are just warming up.

The innings ahead, I believe, are going to be extraordinary.

Disclosures

The opinions expressed herein are those of Nightview Capital and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time you receive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions Nightview Capital makes in the future will be profitable or equal the performance of the securities discussed herein. Nightview Capital reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. Recommendations made in the last 12 months are available upon request.