Most investors had an immediate, gut reaction to last week’s Tesla’s Robotaxi event, and I understand why. I was there—it was a spectacle.

However, part of being a disciplined investor is taking the time to digest new information thoughtfully, which is exactly what I did over the weekend. Rather than jumping to conclusions, I allowed the experience to settle before making more careful observations.

My takeaway: seeing Optimus up close was not just impressive, it was transformative. It felt natural, even intuitive, to be around these humanoid robots, and it became clear to me that we are no longer talking about some distant, sci-fi dream. I believe the foundation for massive demand is being laid, and while it will take time, the end destination seems inevitable.

Similarly, riding in the Cybercab was more than a glimpse into the future—it was a comfortable, relaxing, and social experience. The absence of a traditional car interior made it more enjoyable and less stressful.

For me, the implications were undeniable. The potential for autonomous driving and humanoid robots to reshape industries far beyond transportation is clear, and taking a long-term view here presents a generational opportunity for those willing to think beyond the next few quarters.

Here are my 5 takeaways:

• Seeing the progress in real-life of Optimus is a vastly different experience than watching from afar. From my perspective, seeing Optimus live was a game-changer. The experience of being around the robots felt natural, intuitive, and I could see a clear pathway to massive demand when the technology was ready. Of course, that may take some time. But to me, the destination is obvious, and the foundation has been laid. It is no longer a science fiction dream—but an on-the-ground-reality. It is important to therefore plan accordingly. How the robots were operated was far less important, from my perspective, than the dramatic hardware progress. If one believes that the software problem will be solved eventuall, then the Optimus program requires space in any valuation model. And even discounted out several years, it has a significant NPV, in my opinion.

• Riding in the Cybercab was much more relaxing than I anticipated. The absence of the steering wheel, pedals, and any sort of instrument cluster reduced the sensory overload and streamlined the driving experience. It was also much more social than a normal car. I took the ride with a client of ours, and we were able to talk and socialize. Driving, to me, used to be a stressful chore, but riding in the Cybercab felt comfortable, relaxing, and something to look forward to.

• Tesla’s eventual projected $0.20 per mile for autonomous driving presents a transformative market opportunity. With over 76% of U.S. workers commuting alone, the low cost per mile has the potential to significantly disrupt traditional transportation models. This shift could unlock substantial new revenue streams in urban mobility and related sectors. Transportation has seen only marginal innovations for decades. I believe that many automotive conventions go unquestioned simply because we are accustomed to how things are currently done. This may require adopting new vehicle designs that differ from what we’re used to. Autonomy, in particular, changes almost everything, making many past conventions poor guides for the future. Priced at even $.40 per mile, the potential revenue / profit streams are staggering.

• Experiencing the Cybercab in person confirmed my belief that autonomous driving will be the greatest trade of the 2020s and 2030s. It has become entirely clear to me that the shift toward autonomy will disrupt industries far beyond transportation (same with humanoid robots). This will not only revolutionize personal and commercial mobility, but also transform urban planning, reduce human error in driving, and redefine logistics. The economic potential tied to autonomous technology—spanning sectors like insurance, energy, AI, and data—positions it as one of the most transformative investments of the next few decades.

• It’s never been a better time to be a long-term investor. Real-world AI—i.e. humanoid robots and self-driving cars—present investors with a sort of Rorschach Test. Some believe it will be impossible, while others—like us—believe it will come to fruition. This divergence in opinion creates an arbitrage. In my opinion, if one expands their time horizon—modestly—in this particular scenario, one can realize generational opportunities.

Disclosures:

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The opinions expressed herein are those of Nightview Capital and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any fund managed by Nightview Capital. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. 

Nightview Capital, LLC (Nightview Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Nightview Capital including our investment strategies and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.