By: Arne Alsin — Investor, Lifelong Learner, and CIO of Nightview Capital
Sign up below for more weekly insights from Nightview Capital.
I’ve seen it all—market crashes, bubbles bursting, wars, elections, economic collapses, and the rise of empires. After 40 years in the game, I’ve come to realize that long-term investing isn’t just about numbers on a screen; it’s a living, breathing competition, and I’m still here for the thrill of it.
There’s always something new to learn, and if you think you’ve mastered this game, you’re already behind.
The beauty of investing is that it’s the greatest game in the world—one where the stakes are always high, and there’s always something to improve on. I’ve gathered a few battle scars over the years, but with them, I’ve learned valuable lessons.
So, for those of you looking to beat the market, here are my top 10 strategies learned from decades of navigating the ups and downs.
1. Business is the Greatest Game in the World
If you’re not excited about the game, you’re in the wrong business. Treating investing like a sport makes it fun. It’s about competition, staying ahead, and keeping score. Whether you’re a wide receiver in the NFL or an investor trying to outsmart the market, the thrill is the same.
But unlike sports, you can never truly master investing. There’s always more to learn. The stock market is like the Olympics—you might win the gold, but the moment you think you’ve made it, you’re done. The thrill is in the hunt, not just the victory. Every day brings a new challenge, and that’s what keeps it fresh.
2. To Be an Elite Money Manager, You Need a Playbook
You wouldn’t sit down at a poker table in Vegas without knowing how to play the game, would you? Investing is no different. Having a playbook—a clear strategy built on theory and process—gives you an edge over the competition. It’s the difference between gambling and calculated risk-taking.
When markets get volatile, or when opportunities arise, your playbook should be your guide. It’s a structured approach to decision-making that helps you avoid emotional reactions and stick to what works. Without a playbook, you’re just guessing. With one, you have a plan that sets you up for success, even when the odds seem against you.
3. The Number One Key in Business: Anticipating the Customer’s Needs
Businesses don’t succeed just because they have a great product. They succeed because they understand their customers. The key to investing success is knowing which companies are best at anticipating their customers’ needs and evolving with them.
Customers are always moving, always changing. They’re a moving target, and companies that don’t adapt get left behind. As an investor, it’s your job to figure out which companies are the best at delivering value to their customers. It’s a constant game of figuring out who’s ahead and who’s falling behind.
4. The Stock Market’s Real Role: Liquidity
The stock market is unique in its ability to provide liquidity at the drop of a hat. Need to sell a stock? You can get cash almost instantly. Compare that to real estate, where you might wait weeks or months to sell a property. But with liquidity comes volatility.
Stock prices fluctuate because of sentiment, news, and short-term thinking. But don’t let those ups and downs distract you from the underlying value of the business. The market’s role is to give you a place to trade shares easily, but its mood swings are not a reflection of the true value of your investments.
5. Money Management Should Be Intellectually Stimulating
I’ve worn a lot of hats over the years—detective, talent scout, puzzle solver. Managing money is about more than just picking stocks. It’s about solving the puzzle of the markets, uncovering value where others don’t see it, and continuously learning.
There’s always something to learn, always a new puzzle to solve. It’s not just about making money—it’s about understanding the world around you and finding ways to capitalize on the changes you see. In my view, money management is one of the most intellectually rewarding professions out there.
6. Attributes of Top Money Managers
The best money managers have a few things in common. They focus on theory and process, they’re adaptable, and they think long-term. They don’t get caught up in short-term noise, and they don’t get distracted by the latest market fad.
Successful managers stick to their process, but they’re also flexible enough to adapt when necessary. They’re not afraid to change their minds when new information comes to light, but they don’t abandon their strategy at the first sign of trouble. The ability to balance discipline with adaptability is what sets them apart.
7. Buffett’s Credo: Focus on the Business, Not the Stock
Warren Buffett has always said, “Focus on the business, not the stock.” That’s advice I’ve followed religiously. The stock price is just a number that changes based on market sentiment. But the value of the business—the quality of its management, its product, its growth potential—those are the things that matter.
When you’re evaluating an investment, don’t get distracted by the stock price’s ups and downs. Focus on the fundamentals of the business. If the business is sound, the stock price will take care of itself over time.
8. The Game of Business: Constant Change and Rapid Evolution
If there’s one thing I’ve learned over 40 years, it’s that businesses and industries are always changing. The companies that succeed are the ones that can adapt to those changes. As an investor, your job is to anticipate those changes and position yourself accordingly.
Whether it’s technology disrupting an industry or new regulations reshaping the market, change is the only constant in business. If you can stay ahead of the curve, you’ll be in a position to beat the market.
9. Beware of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt)
The market is full of misinformation, fear, uncertainty, and doubt. It’s easy to get caught up in the negative headlines and market rumors. But the best investors don’t let FUD sway them.
Instead, they focus on the fundamentals—customer behavior, company performance, and long-term value. They don’t panic at the first sign of trouble, and they don’t let fear drive their decisions. Staying calm and sticking to the facts is how you navigate through the noise and come out on top.
10. Set a Strong Foundation
If you want to beat the market, you need a strong foundation. That means having a clear playbook, focusing on customer behavior, and understanding the role of the stock market. It also means being committed to continuous learning and adaptation.
The market is always changing, and the best investors are the ones who keep learning, keep adapting, and stay grounded in their process. If you can do that, you’ll set yourself up for long-term success.
After four decades in the game, I’ve learned that there’s no single secret to beating the market. It’s about staying disciplined, continuously learning, and having a strategy that works for you. The market may throw curveballs, but if you stick to these 10 principles, you’ll be in a much better position to win.
Disclosures:
This has been prepared for information purposes only. This information is confidential and for the use of the intended recipients only. It may not be reproduced, redistributed, or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without the prior written consent of Nightview Capital.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Nightview Capital and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. This is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any fund managed by Nightview Capital. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security.
Nightview Capital, LLC (Nightview Capital) is an independent investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Nightview Capital including our investment strategies and objectives can be found in our ADV Part 2, which is available upon request.
